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Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems Volume 11 ,Issue 4 ,2019-04-30
Evaluation of FAMIL2 in Simulating the Climatology and Seasonal‐to‐Interannual Variability of Tropical Cyclone Characteristics
Research Articles
Jinxiao Li 1 , 2 , 3 Qing Bao 1 , 2 Yimin Liu 1 , 2 , 3 Guoxiong Wu 1 , 3 Lei Wang 1 , 3 Bian He 1 , 2 Xiaocong Wang 1 , 2 Jiandong Li 1
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DOI:10.1029/2018MS001506
Received 2018-09-20, accepted for publication 2019-03-18, Published 2019-03-18
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摘要

Abstract We evaluate the ability of the latest generation atmospheric general circulation model from State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences (namely, FAMIL2) in simulating some key characteristics (genesis location, track, number, and intensity) of tropical cyclones (TCs) in terms of their climatology and seasonal to interannual variability. A standard 1° × 1° atmospheric model intercomparison project experiment is carried out for the period 1979–2002, and the last 20 years of outputs are used for analysis. The same period from International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS) is used as the observation for comparison purposes. The evaluations focus on TC activity at the global scale as well as in the three key regions of the northern Indian Ocean (NIO), western Pacific (WP) and northern Atlantic (NA). With respect to the simulated TC climatology, FAMIL2 shows notable ability in correctly reproducing the main characteristics of the genesis locations, tracks, and numbers of TC, particularly over the key regions of TC activity in the Northern Hemisphere; whereas, it underestimates the intensities of TC, as is the case with many state‐of‐the‐art climate models operating at a medium resolution. On seasonal‐to‐interannual time scales, meanwhile, FAMIL2 successfully reproduces the seasonal cycles of TC numbers over the NIO and WP regions, the former being characterized by double TC peaks (in May and October) and the latter by a maximum peak season in August. However, the model only captures these features approximately. For the simulated interannual variability of TC activity, the correlation coefficients of 20‐year TC numbers between FAMIL2 and IBTrACS are 0.22, 0.51 (95% confidence interval), and 0.49 (95% confidence interval) for the NIO, WP, and NA, respectively. We also examine the possible reasons behind the performance of FAMIL2 by investigating its subseasonal signs related to the Madden‐Julian Oscillation (MJO) and convectively coupled equatorial waves. The TC genesis potential index is employed to investigate the possible impacts of the large‐scale dynamic fields on the simulation of TC activity. Finally, the biases of simulated TC activity, as well as possible solutions for these biases, are discussed with respect to the horizontal resolution of the model. A TC forecasting case study is introduced as a first step in applying FAMIL2 to a TC forecasting system.

关键词

possible reason;seasonal‐to‐interannual variability;climatology;AMIP;FAMIL2;tropical cyclones

授权许可

©2019. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.

图表

The seven basins in FAMIL2: Northern Indian Ocean (NI, red box); western Pacific Ocean (WP, blue box); eastern Pacific Ocean (EP, black box); northern Atlantic Ocean (NA, gray box); southern Indian Ocean (SI, purple box); southern Pacific Ocean (SP, green box); and southern Atlantic Ocean (SA, brown box). The division conforms with that in the IBTrACS data set.

The position of annual tropical cyclone (TC) genesis (black points), which are picked up by using an objective feature‐tracking approach and that covered by 20‐year‐averaged sea surface temperature (shaded). The thick line means the Vmax is greater than 50 m/s, which is the required threshold for TC formation in the current climate (Emanuel, 1987; Korty et al., 2012; Royer et al., 1998). A total of 20 years of data are used here. However, only those TC with lifetimes of at least 3 days are shown, both in International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS, a) and the C96 (~100 km) resolution simulation of FAMIL2 (b). The northern Indian Ocean (c is the result of IBTrACS, f is the result of FAMIL2), western Pacific (d is the result of IBTrACS, g is the result of FAMIL2), and northern Atlantic (e is the result of IBTrACS, h is the result of FAMIL2) basins are also shown.

Comparison of observed (a) and model‐simulated (b) TC tracks, which are picked up by using an objective feature‐tracking approach (resolution: ~100 km; red lines) from 1983 to 2002. Only those TC with a lifetime exceeding 3 days are shown. The northern Indian Ocean (c is the result of International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship, IBTrACS, f is the result of FAMIL2), western Pacific (d is the result of IBTrACS, g is the result of FAMIL2), and northern Atlantic (e is the result of IBTrACS, h is the result of FAMIL2) basins are also shown.

Comparison of the number of tropical cyclone in each basin in percentage terms between (a) IBTrACS and (b) FAMIL2 in C96 simulation (~100 km) in the western Pacific (WP, blue), eastern Pacific (EP, pink), southern Pacific (SP, gray), northern Indian Ocean (NI, red), southern Indian Ocean (SI, purple), northern Atlantic (NA, green), and southern Atlantic (SA, yellow). The annually averaged tropical cyclone numbers are also shown in all basin. IBTrACS = International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship.

The 20‐year seasonal cycle (January–November) of tropical cyclone numbers in the northern Indian Ocean (a), western Pacific Ocean (b), and northern Atlantic (c). The results of FAMIL2 in C96 (~100 km) simulation are shown as red lines, and the results of IBTrACS are shown as black lines. The time periods of the FAMIL2 simulation and IBTrACS are both from 1983 to 2002. IBTrACS = International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship.

Tropical cyclone (TC) tracks (lines) and intensity (colors): (a) from a 20‐year segment (1983–2002) of IBTrACS, and (b) from the simulation of FAMIL2, which are picked up by using an objective feature‐tracking approach at the C96 (~100 km) resolution for 1983–2002. Only those TC with a lifetime exceeding 3 days are shown. The TC in both the simulation of FAMIL2 and observation of IBTrACS are grouped into seven categories in accordance with the modified SS scale (Table 2) but only show the TC which intensities are stronger than “tropical storm” (TS). The results between FAMIL2 (f–h) and IBTrACS (c–e) in the northern Indian Ocean (c is the result of IBTrACS, f is the result of FAMIL2), western Pacific (d is the result of IBTrACS, g is the result of FAMIL2), northern Atlantic (e is the result of IBTrACS, h is the result of FAMIL2) basins are also shown. IBTrACS = International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship.

Pressure‐wind pairs for each 6‐hourly TC measurement for the FAMIL2 in C96 (~100 km) simulation (blue dots) and IBTrACS (red dots) in the western Pacific (a), northern Indian Ocean (b), and northern Atlantic (c). A linear regression (blue line for the result of FAMIL2, red line for the result of IBTrACS) is fitted to each distribution of pressure–wind pairs. IBTrACS = International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship.

Interannual variation of tropical cyclone (TC) numbers in the (a) northern Indian Ocean, (b) western Pacific Ocean (WP), and (c) northern Atlantic (NA) basins. The results of FAMIL2 in C96 (~100 km) simulation are shown as red lines, and the results of IBTrACS as black lines. The time periods of the FAMIL2 simulation (~100 km) and IBTrACS are both from 1983 to 2002. The correlation coefficients of 20‐year TC numbers between FAMIL2 and IBTrACS are 0.22, 0.51 (95% confidence interval), and 0.49 (95% confidence interval) for the NIO, WP, and NA, respectively. IBTrACS = International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship.

The tropical cyclone genesis potential index (GPI) in June–October (JJASO) during 1983–2002, based on ERA‐interim (a) and FAMIL2 at C96 (~100 km) simulation (b). Panel (c) shows the biases of relative humidity (RH), absolute vorticity (vort850), maximum potential intensity (Vmax), and wind shear (Wind_shear) between 850 and 200 hPa in JJASO during 1983–2002 in the western Pacific (WP), eastern Pacific (EP), northern Atlantic (NA), and northern Indian Ocean (NI).

Comparison of annual (January–December) time‐longitude diagrams for lag‐composites of precipitation anomalies (color shading) and 850‐hPa zonal wind between 10°S and 10°N in observation (a) and the FAMIL2 at C96 (~100 km) simulation (b) by using 20–100 band‐pass‐filtered data from 2001–2010. Color shading is for precipitation correlations, while the lagged correlations for the zonal winds are shown by the contours.

Space‐time spectrum of the 15°S to 15°N symmetric (a, b) and antisymmetric (c, d) component of precipitation (shaded) divided by the background spectrum. The frequency spectral width is 1/128 cpd. Panels (a) and (c) are the observations, and panels (b) and (d) are the simulated results of FAMIL2 at the C96 (~100 km) resolution.

Comparison of the number of tropical cyclone in each basin in percentage terms between (a) IBTrACS and (b) FAMIL2 in C384 simulation (approximately 25 km) in the western Pacific (WP, blue), eastern Pacific (EP, pink), southern Pacific (SP, gray), northern Indian Ocean (NI, red), southern Indian Ocean (SI, purple), northern Atlantic (NA, green), and southern Atlantic (SA, yellow). The annually averaged tropical cyclone numbers are also shown in all basins.

Tropical cyclone (TC) tracks (lines) and intensity (colors): (a) from an 8‐year segment (1992–1999) of IBTrACS, (b) from an 8‐year segment (1992–1999) simulation of FAMIL2 in C96 (~100 km), and (c) from an 8‐year segment (1992–1999) simulation of FAMIL2 in C384 (approximately 25 km). The TC in FAMIL2 simulation are picked up by using an objective feature‐tracking approach, and only those TC with a lifetime exceeding 3 days are shown. The TC in both the simulation of FAMIL2 and observation of IBTrACS are grouped into seven categories in accordance with the modified SS scale (Table 2), but only show the TC which intensities are stronger than “tropical storm” (TS).

Table 1

Table 2

Table 3

通讯作者

1. Qing Bao.State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG), Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China;CAS Center for Excellence in Tibetan Plateau Earth Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Beijing, China.baoqing@mail.iap.ac.cn
2. Yimin Liu.State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG), Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China;CAS Center for Excellence in Tibetan Plateau Earth Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Beijing, China;College of Earth and Planetary Sciences, University of Chinese Academy of Science, Beijing, China.baoqing@mail.iap.ac.cn

推荐引用方式

Jinxiao Li,Qing Bao,Yimin Liu,Guoxiong Wu,Lei Wang,Bian He,Xiaocong Wang,Jiandong Li. Evaluation of FAMIL2 in Simulating the Climatology and Seasonal‐to‐Interannual Variability of Tropical Cyclone Characteristics. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems ,Vol.11, Issue 4(2019)

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